Ph.D.
Natcha Dankittipong
National University of Singapore, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health
Title: Investigating a propagation of emerging carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in Dutch broiler production pyramid through stochastic simulation
Name(s): N. Dankittiponga, J. A. Stegemanb, C. J. de Vosc, J. A. Wagenaarb, E. A.J. Fischerb
aSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
bFaculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
cWageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University & Research, Houtribweg 39, Lelystad, the Netherlands.
Simulating resistant bacteria transmission in livestock informs surveillance strategies for emerging threats like Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE), aiding targeted surveillance and detecting CPE through active methods. We employed a simulation model to assess three potential scenarios for introducing CPE: 1) a single import of live animals, 2) the use of contaminated feed, and 3) multiple imports of live animals. Employing the SimInf package, we constructed a population model for broiler production, encompassing rearing farms, multiplier farms, hatcheries, and broiler farms. Subsequently, we introduced CPE and allowed it to spread throughout the population using the Susceptible-Colonized (Infectious)-Susceptible model. The model ran for 10 years with 100 runs. In the single import scenario, 1–2 rearing and multiplier farms saw major outbreaks in all 100 runs, while the broiler farm experienced major outbreaks in only 10 out of 100 runs; in the feed scenario, major outbreaks occurred in rearing farms in 32 runs and in multiplier farms in 26 runs, with major outbreaks in broiler farms observed in all 100 runs; in the multiple import scenario, outbreaks in rearing and multiplier farms happened in all 100 runs, with these major outbreaks reaching the broiler farm in 91 out of 100 runs. CPE transmission from imported or colonized broilers is rapid but short-lived within the broiler population, contrasting with the sporadic and prolonged emergence of CPE from contaminated feed, resulting in lower cumulative probabilities of detection from imported or colonized animals (0–0.50) compared to contaminated feed (0.9–0.97) over a 10-year period. Sensitivity analysis indicated that key outcomes such as farm outbreaks, chicken colonization, and outbreak duration are highly correlated with age-associated reductions in transmission (ψ).
Biography of the presenting author
Trained across Ecology, Epidemiology, and quantitative modelling, I sit at a rare intersection of disciplines that South East Asia urgently needs. My career began at Imperial College London, where I built mechanistic models of mosquito biology under temperature change. I then joined MORU as a research assistant, learning Bayesian Inference in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in a One health context. Contributing to early warning surveillance design, my PhD at Utrecht deepened my modelling toolkit further, expanding to risk assessment, Bayesian statistic, and simulation.
Now at Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, NUS, I lead three pararell workstreams: mechanistic mosquito-climate modelling, environmental and spatial analysis of malaria determinants in Thailand, and a pilot study collecting host movement data to quantify malaria exposure in low-income setting. My ambition is to develop the modelling infrastructure ASEAN currently lacks, and ensure that infrastructure directly informs regional surveillance and health policy.
Presenting author details
Full name: Natcha Dankittipong
Contact number: +65 8313 7091
Email: dankittipong01@nus.edu.sg
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/natcha-dankittipong-b056a8a2
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5549-7662
Session name/ number: TBA
Category: Oral presentation